Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party has won Canada’s federal election, and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has conceded defeat, capping a stunning turnaround in fortunes fuelled by US President Donald Trump’s annexation threats and trade war.
After polls closed, the Liberals were projected to win more of Parliament’s 343 seats than the Conservatives, though it wasn’t immediately clear if they would win an outright majority – at least 172 – or would need to rely on one of the smaller parties to form a government and pass legislation.
With almost all votes counted, results from Elections Canada showed that the Liberals had won 168 electoral districts, followed by the Conservatives with 144.
In a victory speech before supporters in Ottawa, Carney stressed the importance of Canadian unity in the face of the threats coming from Washington. He also reiterated a belief he shared while campaigning: that the mutually beneficial system Canada and the US had shared since World War II had ended.
“We are over the shock of the American betrayal, but we should never forget the lessons,” he said.
“As I've been warning for months, America wants our land, our resources, our water, our country.
"These are not idle threats. President Trump is trying to break us so America can own us. That will never – that will never, ever happen. But we also must recognise the reality that our world has fundamentally changed.”
In a speech conceding defeat and with his own seat in the House of Commons still in doubt, Poilievre vowed to keep fighting for Canadians and their right to an affordable home on a safe street.
“We are cognisant of the fact that we didn't get over the finish line yet," Poilievre told his supporters in Ottawa.
"We know that change is needed, but change is hard to come by. It takes time. It takes work. And that's why we have to learn the lessons of tonight – so that we can have an even better result the next time Canadians decide the future of the country.”
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre concedes defeat in Canadian election. – Reuters
Carney said the coming months would be challenging and require sacrifices.
"The system of open global trade anchored by the United States, a system that Canada has relied on since the Second World War, a system that, while not perfect, has helped deliver prosperity for our country for decades, is over.
"These are tragedies, but it's also our new reality."
The Liberals looked headed for a crushing defeat until the American president started attacking Canada’s economy and threatening its sovereignty, suggesting it should become the 51st state. Trump’s actions infuriated Canadians and stoked a surge in nationalism that helped the Liberals flip the election narrative and win a fourth-straight term in power.
Poilievre hoped to make the election a referendum on former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose popularity declined toward the end of his decade in power as food and housing prices rose.
But Trump attacked, Trudeau resigned, and Carney, a two-time central banker, became the Liberal Party’s leader and prime minister.
Canadians vote in an election dominated by Trump's trade war and bluster. – AP
Carney had promised a tough approach with Washington over its tariffs and said Canada would need to spend billions to reduce its reliance on the US. But the right-of-centre Conservatives, who called for change after more than nine years of Liberal rule, showed unexpected strength.
The House has 343 seats and if Carney only captures a minority, he will have to negotiate with other parties to stay in power. Minority governments in Canada rarely last longer than 2.5 years.
The leader of Canada's opposition New Democratic Party (NDP), Jagmeet Singh, said he planned to quit as party leader after he conceded defeat in his own district.
Speaking at a party event after Canada's election results showed Singh losing his seat at Burnaby Central constituency, the NDP leader appeared emotional as he thanked his wife and the party.
New Democratic Party leader Jagmeet Singh will step down after conceding defeat in his own district. - Reuters
"We are only defeated if we stop fighting. We're only defeated when we believe that those that tell us that we can never dream of a better Canada, a fairer Canada, a more compassionate Canada," Singh added.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer congratulated Carney.
"The bond between Europe and Canada is strong — and growing stronger," von der Leyen said. "I look forward to working closely together, both bilaterally and within the G7. We'll defend our shared democratic values, promote multilateralism, and champion free and fair trade."
Starmer said he looked forward to Carney's leadership on international issues, and to continuing to work closely "on defence, security, trade and investment".
The campaign ended on a sombre note on Sunday after a man rammed an SUV through a crowd at a Filipino community festival in Vancouver, killing at least 11 people and injuring dozens.
Carney briefly paused his campaign, and both he and Conservative leader Poilievre mentioned the tragedy in their final campaign events.
Following his victory, Carney placed flowers and lit a candle at a memorial for those killed in an attack.
New Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney visits memorial for Vancouver attack victims. - AP
Trump re-emerged as a campaign factor last week, declaring that he might raise a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian-made cars because the US does not want them. He said earlier he might use "economic force" to make Canada the 51st state.
"This is probably the most consequential election in my lifetime," said Kelly Saunders, a political science professor at Brandon University.
"Everything has been so overshadowed by the threats coming out of the United States."
Canada has been dealing with a cost-of-living crisis for some time, and Trump's threat to impose sweeping tariffs and his desire to get North American automakers to move Canada’s production south could severely damage the Canadian economy.
Both Carney and Poilievre said they would accelerate renegotiations of a free trade deal between Canada and the US to end the uncertainty hurting both of their economies.
Carney has notable experience navigating economic crises after running Canada’s central bank and later becoming the first non-UK citizen to run the Bank of England.
Carney has emphasised that his experience handling economic issues makes him the best leader to deal with Trump, while Poilievre has tapped into concerns about the cost of living, crime and a housing crisis.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievere casts his ballot in Ottawa. – Reuters
Trump, in a social media post on election day, reiterated his call for Canada to become the 51st state.
"Good luck to the Great people of Canada," he said. "Elect the man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half, increase your military power, for free, to the highest level in the World, have your Car, Steel, Aluminum, Lumber, Energy, and all other businesses, QUADRUPLE in size, WITH ZERO TARIFFS OR TAXES, if Canada becomes the cherished 51st. State of the United States of America. No more artificially drawn line from many years ago."
Poilievre, who has watched support for Carney surge in recent months as Trump mused about absorbing Canada, responded on social media to the president's comment.
"President Trump, stay out of our election. The only people who will decide the future of Canada are Canadians at the ballot box," Poilievre said.
Carney posted: "Elbows up, Canada. #Never51."
"Elbows up" is a hockey reference that Canadians have adopted as a slogan to stand up to Trump.
Carney has sought to distance himself from Trudeau, who was deeply unpopular when he said in January he would resign after nearly a decade in power. The Conservatives led polls by some 20 points around that time.
Liberal Leader Mark Carney votes in Ottawa, Ontario. – Reuters
Poilievre attracted more young voters than usual for the Conservatives, focusing his campaign more on living costs and crime.
"I'm probably going to go Carney on this one just because right now, I feel like we need stability," said Andy Hill, 37, a Vancouver-based mortgage broker.
"Being in the English banking system and being in the Canadian banking system, he really understands the economy."
Bob Lowe, a 66-year-old cattle rancher who lives south of Calgary, said he had cast his ballot for the Conservatives. He said his top concern is Canada's flagging economic growth.
The economy had seen a fledgling recovery until the US imposed tariffs.
Carney, who covered more than 20 cities in his last week of campaigning, has appeared tired but sought to maintain his exuberance at rallies, attended by 1000 to 2000 people, according to party figures.
Carney's rallies have attracted mostly older Canadians and featured placards saying "Jamais Le 51" ("Never 51") and "Un Canada Fort" ("A Strong Canada").
Mentions of Trump have been loudly booed.
Poilievre's rallies were bigger and mentioned Trump less often.
Bloc Quebecois leader Yves-Francois Blanchet casts his ballot in Chambly, Quebec. – Reuters
What are flashpoints in Canada-US relations?
The fraying relationship with the US took on oversized importance for Canadian voters.
The five-week campaign is took place in the slipstream of the trade war that US President Donald Trump launched against Canada and other countries, and the US leader's public musings about annexing Canada.
Trump's actions triggered a nationalist wave in Canada, exposed cracks in one of the world's closest alliances and resuscitated a Liberal government that appeared headed for defeat against the resurgent Conservatives after nearly a decade in power.
Here are some highlights of recent relations:
'Not for sale'
Trump's return to power in January set Canada on edge, as the country braced for a possible trade war with its largest economic partner. Those fears were quickly realized when he announced 25 per cent tariffs on nearly all goods from Canada and Mexico.
Justin Trudeau, who was prime minister at the time, described the move as a "very dumb thing" to do and on March 6 hit back with 25 per cent retaliatory tariffs on US orange juice, spirits, wine and other products. Trump paused the tariffs and granted exemptions for goods that were compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement on trade. But he later imposed a 25 per cent tariff on steel, aluminum and autos that affects all countries. That action prompted Trudeau on March 12 to widen the tariffs on US products.
In a December 18 post on his Truth Social media site, Trump suggested Canada should become part of the US and referred to its prime minister as "Governor Justin Trudeau," likening him to the leader of a US state.
Trump and US officials ramped up the annexation rhetoric after he returned to power on January 20. Angry Canadians responded by boycotting US goods, forgoing travel to Florida and other US winter destinations, and booing the US anthem at sporting events. "Canada Is Not For Sale" hats became popular accessories on the streets of Toronto, Vancouver and other cities.
Carney, who replaced Trudeau as Liberal leader and prime minister last month, is the biggest beneficiary of this friction. A former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, he has seen the popularity of his Liberals soar. Polls now favour them to defeat Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives.
Trump 1.0
In his first term in 2018, Trump also slapped tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, ending the calm that had marked relations between the two countries and prompting Canada to retaliate with levies of its own. Tensions boiled over soon after when Trump stormed out of a G7 summit in La Malbaie, Quebec, and labeled Trudeau as "dishonest" and "weak." The prime minister vowed that Canada would not be "pushed around" by its southern neighbour.
Nevertheless, US, Canadian and Mexican negotiators managed later that year to hammer out the USMCA, which replaced the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement among the three countries.
Iraq war hiccup
Relations between the US and Canada were rock-solid in the 1990s and 2000s, as the two countries ramped up economic integration and maintained tight cooperation on defence and security. A notable exception occurred in 2003 when then-prime minister Jean Chretien refused to support the US-led war in Iraq, souring relations between his government and the George W. Bush administration.
'Sold us out'
The 1988 Canadian election was also dominated by economic relations with Washington. Brian Mulroney, the Progressive Conservative prime minister at the time, campaigned in favour of his 1988 Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement, while the opposition Liberals and left-leaning New Democrats attacked it. A flashpoint occurred during a televised debate when then-Liberal leader John Turner accused Mulroney of favouring US interests over those of Canada. "I happen to believe you have sold us out," Turner charged. Mulroney angrily defended his patriotism and went on to win another majority government, effectively ending the debate over closer economic relations with the US for some three decades.
Vietnam war
The escalation of the US war in Vietnam in the 1960s put the Canadian government in an awkward position. US draft dodgers were streaming across the border and sentiment in Canada was beginning to turn against the conflict. While publicly supportive of US policy, then-Liberal prime minister Lester Pearson called for a pause in the bombing of North Vietnam during a 1965 speech at Temple University in Philadelphia, infuriating then-president Lyndon Johnson.
Pierre Trudeau, the father of Justin Trudeau, became more critical of the war and charted an increasingly independent and nationalist course after succeeding Pearson as Liberal leader and prime minister in 1968.
"Living next to you is in some ways like sleeping with an elephant; no matter how friendly or even-tempered is the beast, if I can call it that, one is affected by every twitch and grunt," the elder Trudeau said of Canada's relations with the US during a speech in Washington in 1969.